Mavs Split Weekend, Beating Teams We Statistically Should Beat

Not a bad weekend. Two games in Arkansas, a loss and a win. 1-1 on the road trip with two of the biggest home games in recent memory coming up thursday (Georgia State) and Saturday (Western Kentucky).

UTA lost heart breakers on the road at those two schools a few weeks ago, and UTA is 8-4 at home this season. Top half of the conference, fifth place. 2 wins behind LA-Lafayette and Arkansas State in third and fourth place.

So with four games remaining, here are the Sun Belt conference standings as of Sunday 2/23/14:

Team Conference Season
Georgia St. 13-1 20-7
Western Kentucky 10-4 18-9
Arkansas St. 9-5 16-9
LA-Lafayette 9-6 18-10
UT Arlington 7-7 12-14
UALR 7-8 12-15
UL Monroe 5-9 8-14
Troy 4-10 9-17
Texas State 4-10 8-19
South Alabama 3-11 9-18

Remaining games for the Mavs:
Georgia State Thursday, Western Kentucky Saturday at College Park Center
Troy Thurs. March 6, at South Alabama March 8.

Considering the next two games at home are against the top two teams in the conference (teams we competed well aginst but lost two heartbreakers to)…but then playing against two not-as-good teams on the road the next week, and considering we’re .500 this season in conference after 14 games…I could realistically see winning half the remaining games–one at home and at least one on the road. Assuming we go .500 over the next 4 games would give the Mavs a 9-9 conference record and 14-16 season record going into the tournament. Then if UTA wins a game in the tournament and loses the next, the Mavs would be 15-17, not a bad year in a new conference. A lot of teams would love to have a 15-win season.

The Sun Belt has proven there are no easy games during conference play, and any team can win or lose on any given night regardless of the location of the game. It’s been fun seeing some really good teams visit College Park Center this season and UTA is already proving it’s ready to be a contender in the conference, even in the first season of competition.

Game stories:
Arkansas State (L 60-83)   ASU Athletics    UT Arlington Athletics   KAIT-TV game story (with video highlights)
UA-LR (W 75-71)  The Shorthorn    UA-LR Athletics    UT Arlington Athletics    THV-11 game story (with video highlights)

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